BE - September 2026

Study national priorities. Against a back- drop of geopolitical uncertainty, ex- panding domestic investment, and the longer-term energy transition, producers are reassessing production and investment strategies in light of changing demand expectations (Connaissance des Énergies, 2026c). This shift also increases uncertainty for financial markets and banking in- stitutions. Reduced coordination among major producers can heighten expected energy-price volatility, complicate the assessment of risks associated with energy-pro- ject finance, and increase operators' hedging requirements. For banks en- gaged in trade finance or energy-sec- tor financing, changes in producer coordination have become a distinct risk factor in their own right. They confirm that financial stability de- pends not only on physical infra- structure and insurance markets, but also on the strength of international governance mechanisms. CONCLUSION The analysis shows that the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis extends far beyond a simple disruption of energy supplies. It points to a deeper shift in the channels through which geopo- litical tensions are transmitted to eco- nomic and financial systems, with financial and insurance infrastructure becoming as strategically important to resilience as maritime routes themselves. Three main conclusions emerge. First, the global economy remains structurally vulnerable to maritime chokepoints despite investments in diversifying energy supplies. Over- land bypass capacity improves the resilience of producing countries but cannot replace major maritime cor- ridors. Second, marine war-risk insurance has emerged as a powerful mecha- nism for transmitting geopolitical risk. By increasing the cost of vessel ISSUE 213 SEPTEMBER 2026 the BANKING EXECUTIVE 61