The Banking Executive Magazine - September 2025 Issue

Saudi Banks Saudi Banks DRIVING A SHIFT IN GCC BANK DEBT ISSUANCE Saudi banks are driving a shift in GCC bank debt issuance towards subordinated US dollar instruments, and this momentum is likely to per- sist into 2026 as capital needs rise and rules tighten, according to the Fitch Ratings. Subordinated instruments constitute an increasingly large proportion of new issuance as banks respond to strong financing growth and forth- coming buffer increases. GCC banks’ dollar issuance this year already exceeds $55 billion, includ- ing certificates of deposit (CDs), well above the 2024 total ($36 billion) and 2025 maturities ($23 billion). Over half ($29.3 billion) is from Saudi banks, including $11.7 billion in additional Tier 1 (AT1) and Tier 2 capital. Subordinated debt accounts for over 70% of Saudi banks’ dollar debt issuance (excluding CDs) so far this year (2024: about 50%). Saudi banks’ CD issuance remains strong, at more than $13 billion in 2025, helping to geographically di- versify the investor base to counter still-tight local liquidity. Fitch views several drivers for Saudi banks’ surge in subordinated dollar debt issuance. Strong financing growth is outpacing deposit growth and has eroded capital buffers in re- cent years. The sector common eq- uity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio decreased by 213bp over 2020-2024. Fitch expects sector credit growth to be 12% in 2025, the highest among GCC banking sectors, with further strong growth in 2026. Upcoming capital regulation, includ- ing the 1% countercyclical buffer from May 2026 and tighter capital rules for interest-rate risk, could also pressure capital buffers and poten- tially some banks’ Viability Ratings. The banks are also increasingly ac- tive in financing projects for Vision 2030. Such financing attracts higher risk-weightings under final Basel III rules, heightening pressure on CET1 ratios. AT1 still dominates non-core capital, at up to 5% of risk-weighted assets at some banks. There is no regulatory cap on the contribution of AT1 to capital, and AT1 is still attractive for banks relative to Tier 2 funding given the modest spread differential be- tween AT1 and Tier 2 debt in the GCC, said the statement from Fitch Ratings. However, Saudi banks have issued nearly $6 billion of Tier 2 debt this year as they seek to make their capi- tal stacks more balanced across in- struments. Tier 2 issuance also broadens the in- vestor base as it attracts more inter- national investors, whereas AT1 issuance is mostly absorbed by do- mestic and regional investors, said the statement. We expect issuance to remain strong in 2026 on more than $10 billion of maturities, continued financing needs and lower interest rates," said the top ratings agency. "About $1.8 billion of AT1 instru- ments will reach first call dates in 2026, and we expect these to be called due to favourable market con- ditions, including lower interest rates," he added.- the BANKING EXECUTIVE 30 ISSUE 201 SEPTEMBER 2025