The Banking Executive Magazine - January 2026 Issue

Toward Universal Prosperity make meaningful life choices, access quality services, and participate in productive economic activity. The central question for the 21st century is not simply how to reduce poverty further, but how to ensure that pros- perity becomes universal and durable. One ambitious proposition suggests that by 2100, even the world’s poor- est populations could attain living standards comparable to those of Switzerland today. Switzerland serves as a benchmark not because of geography or culture, but because it combines high income levels, long life expectancy, robust education systems, and comprehensive social support. It represents what might be described as a society of “plenty”— where security and options are broadly accessible. From a macroeconomic perspective, this aspiration is less radical than it first appears. Achieving such an out- come would require global GDP per capita to grow at approximately 2.6% annually over the remainder of the century—only marginally above the 2.3% annual average observed over the past quarter-century. By 2100, the global population could reach 12 billion, while the global economy could expand to roughly 8.5 times its current size. For financial leaders, these projec- tions raise two critical considera- tions. First, the feasibility of sustained growth at that scale. Second, the dis- tribution of that growth across re- gions. Technological advancement is ex- pected to play a decisive role. Artifi- cial intelligence, advanced materials, biotechnology, and digital infrastruc- ture are already enhancing produc- tivity across sectors. However, the larger contribution to global expan- sion is likely to come from emerging economies closing the gap with ad- vanced markets. Historically, catch- up growth—driven by adoption of existing technologies, infrastructure build-out, and institutional improve- ment—has generated some of the fastest periods of economic expan- sion. For the Arab world, this dynamic is particularly relevant. Several regional economies possess youthful popula- tions, strategic geographic position- ing, and improving financial systems. If capital allocation, regulatory frameworks, and human capital de- velopment align effectively, the re- gion could capture a meaningful share of the incremental global out- put required over the coming decades. Energy represents a foundational constraint—and opportunity. A world of universal prosperity would require global energy generation to double or even triple. More strikingly, clean electricity production would need to expand approximately thirtyfold rel- ative to today’s levels. Such scale may appear daunting, yet historical precedents suggest that large energy shifts can occur within compressed timeframes. China increased its combined solar, wind, and nuclear output tenfold within a decade. The United States saw shale energy rise from marginal contribution to a dominant source in roughly twenty years. France con- structed a nuclear-powered electric- ity system within a single decade in the 1970s. These examples demon- strate that when capital, policy, and technology converge, energy systems can expand rapidly. For Arab economies—many of which are major energy producers— the implication is not retreat from tra- ditional strengths, but strategic diversification. Hydrocarbon rev- enues, where present, can serve as a bridge to large-scale investments in renewables, grid modernization, storage technologies, and regional energy integration. Gulf states have already begun this process through solar mega-projects and green hydro- gen initiatives. North African economies possess significant solar and wind potential that could supply both domestic demand and export markets. Food security presents another di- mension. Projections indicate that a global population of 12 billion could sustain a protein-rich diet without ex- panding agricultural land, provided moderate yield improvements con- tinue. Advances in irrigation effi- ciency, crop genetics, and agricultural management have his- torically exceeded required bench- marks. For arid and semi-arid Arab countries, investment in water-effi- cient agriculture, desalination tech- nologies, and supply chain modernization will remain central to resilience. the BANKING EXECUTIVE 28 ISSUE 205 JANUARY 2026