The Banking Executive Magazine - April 2021

The Global Economy’s Uneven Recovery As such, the Chinese authorities seem to be leaning toward macro- economic-policy normalization, with some fiscal consolidation and monetary tightening anticipated later in the year. This approach is being accompanied by prudential regula- tory measures to manage frothiness in the real-estate sector. While trade tensions with the US appear likely to persist under President Joe Biden’s administration, they no longer seem to be a major factor influencing pri- vate-sector sentiment or growth in ei- ther country. By contrast, European economies, both in the core and periphery of the Eurozone, have been struggling with another COVID-19 wave, flounder- ing vaccination programs, and a lack of policy direction. While industrial production, particularly in Germany, has held up well, much of the Euro- zone will probably have to wait until late 2022 before it reaches pre- COVID GDP levels. the BANKING EXECUTIVE 10 ISSUE 148 APRIL 2021 The United Kingdom, which in 2020 faced a double whammy from Brexit and COVID-19, has made good progress on vaccinating its popula- tion, thereby improving its growth prospects. Japan’s recovery, however, appears fragile despite extensive stimulus measures, with consumer confidence remaining weak and ex- port growth subdued.