The Banking Executive Issue - October 2025 Issue

2025 IMF–World Bank Meetings “full-fledged engagement” with Damascus, including technical work to strengthen the central bank’s ca- pacity as an anchor of monetary and financial stability. Questions to Azour at the regional briefing focused heavily on the im- pact of the Gaza peace deal on Egypt and the wider region—ranging from reconstruction opportunities to refugee flows and security spillovers—illustrating how closely markets link political risk and macro trajectories in MENA. Beyond the Middle East, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo- Iweala’s upgraded trade outlook— raising 2025 goods trade growth to 2.4%, driven largely by AI-related demand and front-loaded U.S. im- ports ahead of tariff changes—rein- forced how intertwined trade policy, technology and macro expectations have become. REGIONAL GROWTH OUTLOOK & RISKS The mood among Arab delegations was more confident than in many re- cent years. The IMF now projects MENA and Pakistan to grow by 3.2% in 2025, up from 2.1% in 2024, with a further pick-up to 3.7% in 2026. Oil exporters benefit from higher production as OPEC+ cuts unwind, while importers gain from lower en- ergy prices, resilient remittances and tourism. Exchange rates have generally ad- justed smoothly, sovereign spreads have narrowed, and several coun- tries—including in the GCC—have returned successfully to international bond markets. For many Gulf sover- eigns, fresh issuance is now more about active debt-management and yield-curve building than filling fi- nancing gaps. But the outlook is far from risk-free. The region remains exposed to global demand swings, oil price volatility, climate shocks and re- newed financial tightening. High- debt countries face particularly thin margins for error. Azour urged MENA policymakers to use the current mo- mentum to rebuild buffers, strengthen fiscal frameworks and ac- celerate structural reforms that diver- sify economies and improve governance. H.E MOHAMED BIN HADI AL HUSSAINI, MINISTER OF STATE FOR FINANCIAL AFFAIRS, UAE The UAE’s Minister of State for Finan- cial Affairs used his IMFC interven- tion to highlight how “major political shifts” have increased uncertainty and disproportionately affected de- veloping and emerging economies. He called for stronger multilateral- ism, a quota-based IMF that better re- flects emerging markets’ weight, and enhanced capacity-building for countries in transition. The UAE also participated actively in G20 and BRICS finance meetings and in the COP30 finance track, positioning it- self as a bridge between advanced economies, BRICS partners and the wider Global South. the BANKING EXECUTIVE 50 ISSUE 202 OCTOBER 2025 5. FOCUS ON THE ARAB WORLD & MENA SEVERAL ARAB VOICES STOOD OUT IN WASHINGTON.