BE - September 2026

Marine Insurance and the Changing Landscape of Geoeconomic Risk the BANKING EXECUTIVE 54 ISSUE 213 SEPTEMBER 2026 By CHAMAS Jad, Senior Economist, PhD Researcher in Economics The Strait of Hormuz in 2026: ABSTRACT The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid a sharp deterioration in the regional security environment in late February 2026 represents the most significant energy shock since the first oil crisis of 1973. This article argues that the crisis extends far beyond a disruption to oil supplies. It highlights the growing role of marine insurance as a transmission channel for geoeconomic risk, with the capacity to affect supply chains, energy markets, and trade finance simultaneously. Drawing on reports by international organizations, studies from specialized research institutes, and established economic publications, the analysis assesses the macroeconomic scale of the shock, examines the role of war-risk insurance premiums in the contraction of maritime traffic, and analyzes the bypass strategies adopted by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the implications of the latter's withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The study shows that insurance markets have become major channels through which geopolitical risk is transmitted to trade finance. It concludes that the resilience of global trade now depends as much on financial and insurance infrastructure as on physical infrastructure.